Real estate along TOD HCMC metro lines increased by an average of 35 – 70% from launch to present, with some projects doubling in value between 2015 and 2023 (Savills Vietnam). Those are historical returns. For foreign investors entering the market in 2026, the more useful question is not where prices have already risen, it is where the infrastructure is being built right now, before prices reflect it.
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Before asking “which TOD should I buy?”, a more accurate question is: “which stage is this TOD in?” This is the most critical distinction for TOD investors in 2026. Established TODs are metro stations that are already operational, with fully formed surrounding infrastructure. Real estate prices here have already reflected most of the infrastructure value, price upside is more limited, but actual yield and liquidity are significantly better.
The clearest track record comes from the An Phu and Thao Dien station TODs:
Forming TODs are stations under construction or recently broken ground, where infrastructure is incomplete and the surrounding ecosystem is taking shape. Real estate prices do not yet fully reflect future value, presenting a window of opportunity for investors with a medium to long-term vision.
According to JLL (January 2026), real estate within a 10-minute walk from a metro station increases by an average of 8%/year, doubling the market average of 4%. This figure is consistently recorded in Asian markets with similar TOD models and typically begins accumulating from the forming stage, not after the station is operational. Established TODs give you yield. Forming TODs give you upside. Knowing which type you are buying is the beginning of every TOD investment decision.
Not every metro station creates a good TOD. History shows that many metro stations were built but the surrounding areas failed to develop due to a lack of foundational conditions. For foreign investors, distinguishing between a “real TOD” and a “nominal TOD” is the most critical skill.
Ms. Do Thi Thu Giang, National Director of Advisory and Valuation at Savills Vietnam, remarked that the value of a TOD is not measured by land price increases, but by its accessibility for various population groups, where workplaces, shopping, education, and healthcare must fully converge within walking distance.
Based on those criteria, four conditions identify a TOD with real potential:
Thu Thiem Station is simultaneously meeting all four conditions, which is a rare occurrence:
With the infrastructure wave breaking ground before July 2, 2026, totaling 10 key projects worth ~$14.4 billion, the TOD real estate HCMC 2026 map is being significantly redrawn. Foreign investors need to know which corridors are in the forming stage and still offer a market entry window.
TOD real estate HCMC 2026 is not a single trade, it is a framework for reading where the city is heading. Established TODs like Thao Dien offer yield and stability today. Forming TODs like Thu Thiem and the Long Thanh corridor offer entry points before the infrastructure premium is fully priced in. The investors who benefit most from TOD cycles are rarely the ones who arrive after the ribbon is cut. They are the ones who read the construction schedule.
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Mr. DONNIE KIM (Korean & English)
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Ms. TRẦN HOÀNG OANH (Vietnamese & English)
Director of Residential and Investment Team
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